MARKET COMMENTARY

Market Stabilisation & Early Bottoming Signals

• March showed clear signs of consolidation and stabilisation
• Bitcoin range-bound with modest recovery; sentiment at capitulation levels
• On-chain indicators (RSI, MACD, MVRV, reserves) aligning with historical market bottoms

March continued the market pullback seen in February, but there were early signs that prices may be stabilising. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies moved within a narrower range after earlier volatility. While some investors were still reducing risk, longer-term data and renewed buying by large institutions suggest the market may be entering a phase in which investors are gradually accumulating again. At the same time, global events created uncertainty in traditional markets, but cryptocurrencies showed some resilience toward the end of the month.

Bitcoin opened March near $67,000, climbed to test $76,000 mid-month, then consolidated in the $66,000–$71,000 range before closing around $68,000. The asset posted a modest monthly gain of 2.0%, trimming some year-to-date losses that still exceeded 24%. Ethereum outperformed with gains of 7.1%, while Solana and the broader market showed a more muted recovery, up 1.5%. Total crypto market cap hovered near $2.4 trillion.

Sentiment remained in Extreme Fear territory for much of the month, with the index dipping as low as 12–13, echoing capitulation conditions seen in prior cycles. Deleveraging pressure eased compared to February’s flash crash, though thin liquidity and macro uncertainty kept volatility elevated. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows reversed course, recording approximately $1.3 billion in net inflows for March — the first positive month of 2026 and a reversal after earlier outflows. This institutional demand helped absorb selling pressure amid ongoing Middle East tensions stemming from U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran.

On-chain data reinforced a bottoming process. Bitcoin entered oversold territory on the weekly RSI, with the weekly MACD showing its second consecutive green week — a pattern that historically marked bottom confirmation. MVRV Z-Score approached extreme lows near 1.2, on-chain realized losses declined sharply, exchange reserves hit multi-year lows, and long-term holder supply reached elevated levels around 78%. These indicators have historically converged at major market floors.

MARCH MACRO OUTLOOK:

Resilient Growth with Elevated Policy Caution

Global liquidity remained ample but faced headwinds from geopolitical shocks and sticky inflation. The U.S. economy displayed solidity, with real GDP growth projections revised upward to around 2.4% for 2026, supported by AI-driven productivity gains and private consumption despite tariff and energy price pressures. The labour market stayed relatively stable, with unemployment near 4.3–4.5%.

The March FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%, with near-unanimous support for a cautious hold due to stubborn inflation and economic uncertainty. Officials maintained a projection for a single rate cut in 2026, amid concerns over rising oil prices and a “hot” February PPI report. Manufacturing PMI signals remained mixed due to tariffs and costs, while services activity provided steadier support. The broader 2026 outlook pointed to tempered expansion amid fiscal deficits and policy uncertainties.

CRYPTO OUTLOOK:

 Accumulation Phase Takes Shape as Institutions Absorb Supply 

Institutional Demand Driving Structural Support

• $1.3B ETF inflows mark reversal after prior outflows
• Corporates (e.g. Strategy) and sovereigns actively accumulating BTC
• Post-halving supply deficit emerging (institutional demand > new issuance)

Bitcoin’s behaviour in March highlighted a shift from pure risk-off correlation toward greater resilience. While initial geopolitical flares (including escalations around Iran) triggered short-term risk aversion and dips toward $64,000–$66,000, crypto stabilized faster than some traditional assets. Leverage normalized further, and the absence of cascading liquidations allowed on-chain signals of exhaustion to surface.

The February capitulation event appeared as a potential defining low, with March marking a “desert crossing” of sideways accumulation and secondary support testing — closely tracking historical bottoming patterns such as 2014–2015. On-chain indicators aligned: MVRV Z-Score at depressed levels, declining realized losses (from peak capitulation to far lower daily figures), exchange BTC reserves at 7-year lows, and long-term holders increasing their share of supply. These conditions historically precede significant recoveries, though timing remains uncertain — the phase calls for patience rather than immediate reversal expectations.

A standout development was the accelerating institutional wave. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continued aggressive accumulation, adding tens of thousands of BTC during the month through equity and preferred share issuances, pushing holdings well above 760,000 BTC. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed outflows with $1.3 billion in March inflows, while traditional Wall Street players deepened involvement via ETF launches, direct trading access, and infrastructure builds. Sovereign entities also showed growing allocations. Post-halving daily Bitcoin production (~450 BTC) was outpaced by institutional absorption exceeding 1,000+ BTC/day in periods, creating a structural supply deficit. Whales accumulated significantly, while retail selling contrasted with this quiet, large-scale buying.

This institutional absorption, from firms once sceptical of the asset class, signals a maturing market where mandates and risk frameworks now demand exposure. Combined with round-the-clock trading and ETF infrastructure, Bitcoin increasingly functions as a geopolitical shock absorber capable of channelling capital during uncertainty.

Looking ahead, further tests toward lower supports remain possible if macro tightens or oil-driven inflation persists, but catalysts including regulatory clarity (e.g., Clarity Act progress), stablecoin growth, and sustained ETF/corporate flows could accelerate reversal. The data supports an accumulation zone rather than deeper capitulation fears or instant moonshots. History suggests many participants begin DCA strategies in such phases, aligning with earlier calls for caution followed by patience.

The bottoming process is underway according to multiple frameworks and on-chain convergence, even as the market crosses the desert. Institutional supply absorption is no longer theoretical; it is observable and structural.

Portfolio Update

• One-off NAV methodology change resulted in a 53.0% reported decline for March, driven by the removal of reconciliation balances from NAV
• Not a trading loss or cash event — underlying performance, positions, and exchange activity are unchanged
• Improved reporting going forward — NAV now reflects only realisable balances, with reconciliation items cleared each period to avoid repeat adjustments

The Portal Radiance Multi-Strategy Fund was down 53.0% for the month of March, after the administrators implemented a one-off refinement to the NAV methodology and presentation. They have now updated the NAV approach so that the fund’s NAV is supported only by realisable balances and positions, and the reconciliation residual from the monthly Deribit wallet reconciliation is no longer carried as a rolling balance sheet asset. This creates a one-off step-down in the reported NAV in the month the refinement is applied and therefore a corresponding one-off impact on reported performance.

Given the current size of the Fund AUM, this has had a disproportionately large impact on performance for the month, however it is important to note:

• This is a reporting methodology refinement, not a trading loss and not a cash event.
• It does not change the underlying trading history or the exchange wallet activity.
• Going forward, the reconciliation residual will be cleared/netted each period, so this type of step change will not repeat.

We are continuing to target recovery and beyond within 12–24 months, subject to market conditions.

Portal Digital Fund

We estimate the Portal Digital Fund generated a return of -6.5% for the month of March, net of fees. Most of the Funds in Portal Digital Fund are conducting mature strategies that have survived and thrived from multiple bull and bear cycles. While they are currently in a “pain period” due to consecutive market shifts, the performance remains within expectations. We’re preparing to deploy strategies that are agnostic to market returns, designed to deliver robust, reliable returns for PDF investors similar to the following strategies.

Portal Futures Grid SMA Strategy

The Portal Futures Grid SMA Strategy generated a return of 5.0% for the month of March, net of fees. The strategy was up 10.1% in the first quarter of 2026 and is showing excellent returns in an environment where the market returns have been negative.

Portal Mean Reversion SMA Strategy

The Portal Mean Reversion SMA Strategy generated a modest 0.8% net of fees in March. For the first quarter of 2026, the strategy generated a return of 6.1%, net of fees. The strategy continues to perform well, suffering only 3 down months over the past 21 months.

As always, feel free to reach out with any questions or to discuss how our strategies may suit your portfolio.

Greg Galton

Chief Investment Officer

📧 [email protected] | 🌐 www.portal.am