APRIL 2026 PERFORMANCE 

MARKET COMMENTARY

Market Recovery Strengthens on Institutional Demand

April marked a constructive shift for digital assets following March’s stabilisation. Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies moved out of their recent consolidation range as sentiment improved and institutional buying remained steady.

Bitcoin opened the month near US$68,000, rallied to test US$79,500, and finished around US$76,300 — a gain of approximately 11.8% for April. Ethereum rose 7.4%, while Solana was broadly flat. The broader market also strengthened, with the CCi30 Index gaining 4.6% and total crypto market capitalisation expanding toward US$2.6 trillion.

Leverage remained disciplined, and on-chain data continued to indicate ongoing accumulation, while crypto markets showed resilience against a backdrop of geopolitical and policy uncertainty in traditional markets.

Sentiment climbed out of Extreme Fear into Neutral territory, with the index recovering from mid-teens lows toward the mid-40s–50s by month-end. Deleveraging pressures continued to ease, liquidity improved selectively, and volatility moderated compared to prior months. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows built on March’s reversal, recording healthy net inflows (building on the prior ~$1.3 billion) as institutional demand absorbed available supply amid lingering Middle East tensions.

On-chain indicators continued to support the view that the market is stabilising and entering an early recovery phase. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index moved out of deeply oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator turned increasingly positive. The Market Value to Realised Value Z-Score also recovered from cycle lows while remaining at historically attractive levels.

At the same time, realised losses continued to decline, exchange reserves remained near multi-year lows, and long-term holders retained close to 78% of Bitcoin supply. Historically, this combination of signals has often preceded stronger upward market cycles.

APRIL MACRO OUTLOOK:

Steady Growth Amid Geopolitical and Policy Crosscurrents

Global liquidity stayed supportive overall, though geopolitical developments (particularly ongoing U.S.-Iran related frictions) and sticky energy prices introduced volatility. The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience, with 2026 GDP growth forecasts holding near 2.3–2.5%, buoyed by AI productivity tailwinds and consumer spending despite tariff impacts. Unemployment remained stable around 4.3–4.5%.

The April US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting left rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, with officials adopting a cautious, “wait-and-see” approach, prioritising incoming economic data amid concerns over persistent inflation and global energy shocks. Projections for limited rate cuts in 2026 continued amid inflation concerns tied to oil and supply chain pressures. Manufacturing PMI showed mixed signals, while services activity provided a firmer base. The broader outlook reflected tempered but durable expansion, with fiscal dynamics and uncertainty keeping markets attentive to data surprises.

CRYPTO OUTLOOK:

Institutional Flows Continue to Support Bitcoin

April’s price action signalled a transition from March’s “desert crossing” accumulation into a clearer recovery phase. Early-month dips faced buying interest, with Bitcoin establishing higher lows and breaking key resistance levels faster than in prior corrective periods. Reduced leverage minimized cascading risks, allowing on-chain exhaustion signals to translate into sustained bidding.

The February capitulation increasingly looks like a cycle low, with April reinforcing historical bottoming patterns through higher highs, improved breadth, and conviction buying. On-chain indicators aligned bullishly: MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) at healthier yet still discounted levels, sharply lower realised losses, persistently low exchange reserves, and strong long-term holder retention. Whales and institutions continued to accumulate net positions, contrasting with selective retail profit-taking.

Institutional momentum accelerated as a defining theme. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) maintained aggressive buying, further expanding holdings well beyond prior peaks via ongoing capital raises. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw consistent inflows, traditional finance deepened infrastructure commitments, and sovereign/corporate interest expanded. Post-halving Bitcoin issuance (~450 BTC/day) was comfortably outstripped by institutional and whale demand, often exceeding 1,000+ BTC daily in active periods, entrenching a structural supply squeeze. Bitcoin’s role as a geopolitical risk hedge and non-sovereign asset gained further credibility in uncertain times.

This maturation, where mandates now routinely include crypto exposure, combined with 24/7 trading and ETF plumbing, positions the asset class for greater capital channelling during macro stress. Regulatory progress (e.g., Clarity Act advancements), stablecoin expansion, and corporate treasury adoption remain key tailwinds.

Looking ahead, short-term pullbacks toward previous support levels, including the US$70,000–US$72,000 range, remain possible amid macroeconomic uncertainty or periods of profit-taking. However, the broader market structure continues to favour further upside.

Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, growing corporate participation, clearer regulatory frameworks, and improving risk appetite could support a move back toward, and beyond, the US$80,000 level in the months ahead. Current market data increasingly suggests a transition from accumulation into recovery, rather than a return to deep capitulation conditions. Historically, patient and systematic approaches such as dollar-cost averaging have performed well in these environments.

The bottoming process has transitioned into early recovery according to technical, on-chain, and institutional frameworks. Institutional supply absorption is not only observable but also becoming the market’s dominant structural feature.

PORTFOLIO UPDATE

Portal Radiance Fund

The Portal Radiance Multi-Strategy Fund delivered a return of +11.6% for the month of April, marking a decisive completion to the Fund’s stabilisation phase and the beginning of its anticipated recovery trajectory. This positive performance reflects improving market conditions and successful positioning in high-conviction opportunities, as sentiment and institutional flows strengthened.

We are continuing to target recovery and beyond within 12–24 months, subject to market conditions.

Portal Digital Fund

We estimate the Portal Digital Fund generated a return of +0.5% net of fees for the month of April. While the current environment has placed many of the Fund’s strategies in a challenging “pain period” amid consecutive market shifts and consolidation, April’s results remain well within our expected parameters and risk tolerances.

Portal Futures Grid SMA Strategy

The Portal Futures Grid SMA Strategy generated a return of +8.4% for the month of April, net of fees. The strategy continues to deliver excellent year-to-date returns in an environment where conditions have been challenging, and market returns have been negative.

Portal Mean Reversion SMA Strategy

The Portal Mean Reversion SMA Strategy generated a net-of-fees return of +1.9% in April. The strategy continues to perform well on a risk-adjusted basis, generating a Sharpe ratio of 1.97 and a Sortino ratio of 3.14.