March 2025 Market Commentary

MARKET INTELLIGENCE 

Market Performance:

Mark O Witten, CFA

• Market Update:
•  March was volatile and directionless for crypto.
• BTC surged +13% to $94,400, then dropped -11% to $76,700, before recovering +8% to close at $82,400 (down -2.2% for the month).
• Broader market (CCi30 Index) fell -8.6%, with altcoins underperforming once again.
• Macroeconomic Outlook – “Muddying Through”
• Key focus: Will the U.S. enter a recession as global tariffs intensify?
• Mixed signals: Some assets (like BTC and the “Magnificent 7”) are down 20%+ from their highs — is it a correction or a healthy valuation reset?
• BTC cycles are no longer driven by traditional halving dynamics. The market has shifted significantly due to:
  • Institutional inflows,
  • Regulatory clarity, and
  • Sovereign demand via initiatives like the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
• Liquidity Landscape
• Global liquidity is improving on the demand side but still in a three-year contraction per Global Liquidity Index (10% drawdown).
• Fed caught between fighting inflation and avoiding economic slowdown.
• Trump Administration 2.0 hopes to achieve:
  • $1T annual spending cuts via DOGE program.
  • Revenue through tariffs, visa sales, tax reform.
  • A boost in domestic manufacturing and energy production.
• H2 2025 is expected to bring improved liquidity, favouring crypto markets.
• BTC as Digital Gold
• Fed slowing quantitative tightening (QT) — a sign of future liquidity easing.
• BlackRock positions BTC as a safe-haven asset for pension funds, insurers, and sovereign entities.
• Expect more volatility in global capital and currency markets.
• Portal’s Investment Thesis on BTC
• BTC to exceed expectations in growth and duration due to:
• US Spot ETFs enabled $40B+ net inflows; $120B AUM in a year.
• Institutional investments from Brevan Howard, Yale, Rockefeller Foundation.
• Government investment: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve under Trump.
• Corporate adoption: BlackRock added BTC to its $150B model-portfolio system.
• Retail & wealth management acceptance of BTC for diversification (1% allocation = +2% outperformance with no added volatility).
• SEC regulatory approval and end of enforcement actions (“Operation Chokepoint 2.0” is over).
• Second-order institutional adoption (e.g., Texas State Treasury BTC Reserve).
• Market Sentiment & Capitulation
• March 11: 365-day new lows hit 48%, the highest in this cycle.
• Likely marks a capitulation and new accumulation phase.
• Indicates a healthy reset and continuation of the broader uptrend.
• Summary & Outlook
• BTC is evolving into a global macro asset, now fully legitimised by the U.S Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
• Regulatory changes have increased institutional sophistication in crypto markets.
• Radiance Fund continues to grow BTC holdings via the Bitcoin Extraction Strategy (BESt).
• Long-term outlook remains bullish for BTC and broader crypto markets.

*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Specific risks may impact on the possibility of such a return in future.

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VOLATILITY, REGULATORY SHIFTS & INNOVATIONS PROPEL STRATEGIC ADJUSTMENTS

Market Overview:

Greg Galton, Analyst Adviser

Corporate Bitcoin Accumulation Accelerates

• GameStop to issue $1.3B in 0% convertible senior notes maturing 2030, with proceeds earmarked for Bitcoin purchases.
• GameStop’s board has formally approved BTC as part of its fiscal reserve assets.
• MicroStrategy purchased $1.9B in BTC, bringing holdings to 528,185 BTC (2% of all in circulation). Funded via equity and preferred stock issuance.

Tariffs Reshape the Mining Industry

• 34% U.S. tariff on Chinese imports is hitting the bitcoin mining sector hard.
• Hardware prices up 20–50%, driving demand for U.S. manufactured rigs.
• Expect mining difficulty growth to slow, boosting profitability for existing miners.
• Hut 8 merges with Eric & Donald Trump Jr.’s American Data Centers to form American Bitcoin, aiming to be the largest U.S.-based miner.

Larry Fink: BTC Could Threaten the Dollar

• In his annual letter, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that the U.S. dollar’s dominance is at risk due to soaring national debt.
• Fink views Bitcoin as a hedge against U.S. fiscal instability, further legitimising it as a digital alternative to fiat.

Stablecoins Surge Amid Regulatory Clarity

• Stablecoin market cap hits $235B, up from $152B YoY.
• U.S. Congress making bipartisan progress on the regulatory framework:
  • Reserve backing,
  • Issuance of licenses, and
  • Federal oversight in the pipeline.
• Major players (BoA, Fidelity, PayPal, Stripe) preparing an entry.
• Circle (USDC issuer) reports $1.68B revenue and reapplies for the NYSE IPO under the ticker “CRCL.”

Chokepoint 2.0 Officially Ends

• On March 28, the FDIC declared that banks no longer need prior approval to engage with crypto.
• Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill commits to removing reputational risk-based barriers.
• CFTC now treats crypto derivatives like traditional instruments.
• OCC guidance confirms that national banks can legally participate in select crypto activities.

Takeaway

• Regulatory, corporate, and institutional tailwinds are converging to push crypto into mainstream finance.
• Bitcoin continues gaining credibility as a reserve and strategic asset among corporations and governments alike.
• The mining landscape is shifting; tariffs filtering out inefficient BTC miners and stablecoins are the next battleground for mainstream adoption.

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FINAL THOUGHTS

March was a volatile month for crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) rallied +13% early in the month, peaking at $94,400, before tumbling -11% to $76,700, and finally recovering +8% to end March at $82,400. The broader market, measured by the CCi30 Index, declined -8.6% as altcoins continued to underperform. BTC closed the month down -2.2%.

Despite the chop, longer-term momentum continues to build beneath the surface.

Final Thought: Buy When Others Are Fearful

Market data from Jamie Coutts’ latest report shows a potential capitulation bottom. The 365-day new lows indicator hit 48% on March 11—the highest of this bull cycle—suggesting a deep flush may be behind us, and a new accumulation phase is underway.