January 2025 Market Commentary
January 2025 Market Commentary
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Market Performance:
Mark O Witten, CFA
- Crypto Markets: The CCI30 (Crypto Currency Index) was up +5.7%, whilst Bitcoin (BTC) was up +9.2%.
- Radiance Multi-Strategy Fund: +13.7% due to the implementation of its Bitcoin Extraction Strategy, now representing 80% of the portfolio which generated +17.3% more BTC in January.
- Portal Digital Fund: Up +1% (initial estimate) due to the Alt coins lagging BTC. We are busy repositioning the Fund away from some of the thematic / fundamental funds to momentum-based strategies with an update call to follow shortly.
- *Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Specific risks may impact on the possibility of such a return in future.
Institutional Adoption and Investment Trends:
- January solidified a 3-month trading channel for Bitcoin (BTC) between $92,000 and $108,000, maintaining strong momentum with decisive dip buying.
- February’s volatility continues due to trade war and tariff concerns, but selloffs remain shallow and short-lived.
- ETFs have attracted over $44bn in net inflows, expanding institutional access to BTC with January seeing $903 million into US BTC ETF’s.
- BTC dominance has risen from 38% to 59% since the FTX collapse in November 2022, signalling net capital rotation from Altcoins to BTC.
Altcoin Season: Faulted or Finished
- A total of 11.35m Altcoins minted to date
- Over 11m of these are Memecoins.
- Only 1000 Memecoins are listed, with 97% considered defunct.
- Memecoin flood has diluted the message of the Altcoins that will drive Web3.0 solutions.
- “Altcoin season”, when Altcoins rise exponentially powered by BTC profits, is now in doubt, leading the way to selective Altcoin investment and a greater focus on BTC.
Conclusion:
- Bitcoin continues to establish itself as a macro asset with deep liquidity and global trading availability.
- Institutional adoption and reduced volatility support a stable growth trajectory with optimistic price targets
VOLATILITY, REGULATORY SHIFTS & INNOVATIONS PROPEL STRATEGIC ADJUSTMENTS
Market Overview:
Greg Galton, Analyst Adviser
- Radiance Multi-Strategy Fund: Up +13.7%, outperforming the CCi30 index (+5.7%)
- The Bitcoin Extraction Strategy (BESt) generated income settled in BTC of +6.5% and finished +17.3% more BTC by EOM. 80%of the fund is now dedicated to the BESt strategy.
- Ethereum (-1.3%), Solana (+22.3%) ChainLink (+25.3%), Jupiter (+26.5%)
Outlook
- Potential Altcoin ETFs for Doge and XRP deliver some Altcoin optimism
Trump Executive Order (Jan 23, 2025)
- Establishes Presidential Digital Asset Market Working Group
- Focus on regulating stablecoins and assessing a national digital asset reserve
- Prohibits CBDC development by US agencies
SEC to Roll Out Crypto Reforms
- Reviewing past crypto-related lawsuits, possibly freezing non-fraud cases
- Clarifying classification rules for cryptocurrencies
- Possible repeal of costly crypto accounting guidelines for public companies
MicroStrategy Acquires More Bitcoin
- Bought 10,107 BTC for ~$1.1 billion at $105,596 per BTC
- Now holds 471,107 BTC at an average cost of $64,511 per BTC