December 2025 Market Performance

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December: -6.5%*

CCi30: -7.4%

12 Months: -40.4%

Since Inception:  +167.2%

Performance Update

The Portal Digital Fund soft estimate for the month of December is down 6.5%*, slightly ahead of the CCi30 index which fell 7.4%. 

Our analysis of hedge fund returns for 2025 reinforces our belief that traditional, directional strategies such as fundamental, buy and hold funds have ultimately failed to perform because they depended too heavily on market conditions, rising sharply in bull markets but then falling 70–85% in downturns. Over a full cycle, this has led to flat or low single-digit returns, poor risk-adjusted performance, and deep drawdowns. For 2025, the benchmark CCi30 index was down 33.3%, while fundamental, research-heavy funds with high exposures to altcoins were down between 25% and 55%, experiencing significant losses due to liquidity issues and altcoin token price drops.

In response, the Fund continues in its pivot, shifting toward market-agnostic, systematic strategies designed to generate returns in all market conditions. These strategies capture structural inefficiencies unique to digital-asset markets, such as liquidity provision, futures-spot price differences, volatility pricing, and other microstructure dynamics, that operate 24/7 and are far less competed away than in traditional finance.

By concentrating on these persistent, market-agnostic opportunities, the Fund is now targeting 35%+ net annualised returns over the cycle, an expected Sharpe ratio above 2.0, controlled drawdowns of 12–15%, low beta to BTC/ETH or traditional markets, and strong capital preservation. 

Market Commentary

December proved challenging for altcoins, with the CCi30 Index down 7.4% for the month, underperforming both Bitcoin (-3%) and Ethereum (-1%). Major altcoins showed mixed intra-month action: XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin briefly outperformed in thin holiday trading (gains of 1-1.3% on select days), but overall momentum faded amid year-end tax harvesting and reduced liquidity.

Key drivers of underperformance included persistent U.S. regulatory evolution. While 2025 delivered historic progress with Congress passing the first major crypto legislation, scaled-back SEC enforcement, and frameworks like the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, lingering uncertainties around token classification, custody rules (e.g., SEC’s December guidance on Rule 15c3-3), and CFTC tokenised collateral policies created hesitation. Altcoin spot ETFs (Solana, XRP, others) saw inflows but failed to ignite sustained rallies, as capital remained selective amid macro caution and Bitcoin’s dominance.

Institutional flows favoured “alt majors” like XRP and Solana earlier in the year, but December’s thin volumes amplified downside. Broader altcoin fatigue stemmed from liquidity constraints supporting thousands of tokens, narrative desensitisation, and no broad “altseason” materialising despite network growth (e.g., rising DeFi TVL and stablecoin volumes).