September Market Commentary
September Market Commentary
INSIGHTS AT THE FOREFRONT:
MARKET INTELLIGENCE FROM OUR CIO, MARK O. WITTEN
Market Dynamics:
- Market Conditions and Movements:
- Volatility and Trends: September continued the trend of market volatility observed since April, with significant fluctuations within the month. The cryptocurrency market experienced sharp declines and rallies, with Bitcoin and Ethereum facing intra-month losses of 11% and 14%, respectively, before rallying.
- Market Range: The crypto market has been trading sideways for the past six months, between $53,000 and $70,000 for Bitcoin, showing strong support at the $60,000 level. A breakout is anticipated with expectations of achieving new sustained all-time highs influenced by additional market liquidity through interest rate cuts and quantitative easing.
- Interest Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve made a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points, the first since 2020 and the largest since 2008. Additional cuts are forecasted by year-end and into 2025, with a potential total of 150 basis points by the end of Q1 2025.
- China’s Economic Stimulus: China’s central bank announced a major post-pandemic stimulus package, which included aggressive rate cuts and mortgage easing, significantly boosting the CSI 300 index by 16%.
- TOKEN2049 Conference: The annual TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore attracted over 25,000 attendees, focusing on regulatory clarity, emerging technologies, DeFi, Web3 adoption, tokenization, and interoperability.
- Political and Regulatory Support: The Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville helped garner significant political backing, with all candidates and members of congress now showing support for pro-crypto regulatory reforms.
- ETF Dynamics: Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract inflows, growing to hold 934k BTC worth $59.4 billion, while Ethereum ETFs saw slight outflows.
- Institutional Custody: BNY Mellon secured SEC approval to custody digital assets, enhancing institutional confidence in cryptocurrency through a robust custody model.
- Increased Activity: Altcoins and smaller tokens showed signs of increased liquidity and price volatility, indicating a resurgence of retail interest. The next market rally is expected to favor altcoins, potentially outperforming Bitcoin in returns.
VOLATILITY, REGULATORY SHIFTS & INNOVATIONS PROPEL STRATEGIC ADJUSTMENTS
By Greg Galton, Analyst Adviser
Market Overview:
- Performance Overview:
- Fund Performance: The Radiance Multi-Strategy Fund outperformed the CCi30 index, with key contributions coming from AI-focused assets like Fetch.ai (FET) and Near (NEAR).
- Notable Altcoin Gains: Small to mid-cap altcoins such as Sei (SEI), Injective (INJ), and Dymension (DYM) saw significant increases in September, with gains of 61.6%, 32.3%, and 31.3% respectively.
- Token2049 Conference Impact: The Token2049 conference in Singapore highlighted advancements across major blockchain platforms, reinforcing the legitimacy of the crypto market and its potential to revolutionize the financial system.
- Sony’s Blockchain Initiatives: Sony Block Solutions Labs announced its public testnet Minato for the Soneium blockchain, focusing on partnerships with major blockchain entities like Circle and Optimism.
- Tether’s Treasury Holdings: Tether’s audit showed significant reserves, positioning it as a major holder of US Treasuries globally.
- Government Bitcoin Holdings: The latest rankings revealed the US, UK, and Bhutan as significant holders of Bitcoin, with Bhutan’s holdings derived from mining operations.
- JPMorgan’s Blockchain Use: Jamie Dimon acknowledged JPMorgan’s extensive use of blockchain technology but remained skeptical about cryptocurrencies.
- Binance Regulatory Challenges: Binance faced heightened scrutiny from the SEC, with concerns about token listings and market manipulation, amidst the controversy over the inclusion of TON ecosystem games and memecoins.