Portal Market Commentary  –  October 2024

The US Election is THE Catalyst for Cryptocurrencys Adoption!

Donald J. Trump is the 47th president of the United States and his comeback victory signals a positive and significant shift in US policy across all fronts. The most constructive effects of this will be in the reduction of geopolitical risk as wars are wound down and commensurately inflation falls, as well as for crypto and digital assets.

The main catalyst for the current spike in cryptocurrency and digital assets is a supportive regulatory environment as all market participants – entrepreneurs, institutions, developers and investors now have regulatory support and improve market structure and legitimacy.

Operation Choke Point 2.0. is now over and the billions in fines levied by the Biden Administration will be reversed. Innovation, particularly in DeFi and the coming wave of Tokenization will gather momentum.

We expect Gensler to be removed from the SEC post-haste and regulatory support is expected by both houses. This means that important pending legislation such as the Market Structure Bill and Stablecoin Bill now have a much more secure and supportive passage through congress, which now consists of 219+ pro-crypto candidates and is the most pro-crypto congress ever. This will be pivotal in shaping future crypto regulation in a positive constructive manner.

The second catalyst is the expected massive increase in demand as Trump pledged to set up a Bitcoin Reserve. This is backed up by Michael Saylor’s 21/21 plan for MicroStrategy as they announced plans to raise $42 billion in fresh capital for Bitcoin purchases over the next three years, according to its Q3 2024 earnings release on October 30, 2024. He tweeted we have a #Bitcoin President after the election results were revealed with the picture below.

This was in addition to Larry Finks recently reaffirming his support for Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. According to him, Bitcoin is not only a viable investment but also a rival to traditional commodities like gold.

The Alt-Season Begins?

Major decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens such as Aave and Uniswap posted substantial gains following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election. This follows a recent report, which suggests US SEC Chair Gary Gensler may step down in the coming December or January, following the tradition of SEC chairs resigning when a new president takes office.

This practice allows the incoming administration to appoint a chair aligned with their agenda. Meanwhile speculation is increasing the new Trump administration will select an SEC chair more supportive of crypto, a move eagerly awaited by many in the industry. Such a new SEC leader could mean clearer guidelines and fewer enforcement actions against digital assets.”

Conclusion

All of this has firmly pushed the price north $75,000 and set a new all-time high after turning in October 2023 at $25,000. In addition, the bear channel has been broken with BTC making new higher highs and higher lows. Technically, BTC is set to encounter no new resistance until $88,000 as per the chart below, courtesy of investing.com:

There has been a sharp swing in the US regulatory attitude towards Crypto Assets and the shifting sentiment in the political and regulatory landscape for crypto will have knock-on effects for the industry’s outlook and potential globally.

Declining supply, rising demand, political support, regulatory approval and the now confirmed Fed pivot are all coinciding in Q4 2024. We further believe we are at the tipping point of a very rapid surge in the adoption of Crypto Assets which is now underpinned by institutions and investors using and investing in this new asset class.

We believe Bitcoin dominance will continue for the foreseeable future and remain firmly long the market as we also expect the season of the alts will be triggered given the outlook above.

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