Portal Market Commentary – June 2025
Portal Market Commentary – June 2025
Market Update
June 2025 was a choppy month for the cryptocurrency market, characterised by significant price swings, deepening institutional involvement, and a complex interplay of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Bitcoin closed the month 2.4% higher as it reinforced its dominance, testing new highs, although implied volatility dropped to 36.27%, marking the lowest level since October 2023 across derivatives markets. Altcoins showed selective strength amid capital rotation with the CCi30 down 1.3% for the month. The passage of the GENIUS Act, technological advancements, and global geopolitical events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, shaped a dynamic landscape for digital assets. The Radiance Multi- Strategy Fund finished the month up an estimated 5.6% which included generating an additional 2.8% in Bitcoin, closing the first half of the year with 33% additional Bitcoin extracted, or an average monthly Bitcoin generation of 5.5%.
Will Bitcoin benefit from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’?
US President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” includes a $5 trillion increase to the debt ceiling, which has stirred significant controversy, and many Bitcoin advocates believe the move could be a catalyst for a new all-time high in 2025.
Although several solid analyses point to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, past US debt ceiling increases and suspensions have generally led to bearish outcomes, at least in the six months that followed. In fact, the June 2023 event stands as the only instance where Bitcoin posted gains afterwards.
Some might argue that markets price in these developments in advance. However, that assumption weakens when looking at Bitcoin’s flat performance. Bitcoin’s resilience occurred despite widespread expectations that the Trump administration would push through the debt ceiling increase. At that time, economists projected the government would run out of funds by mid-August. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the new legislation will add at least $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade.
But rather than focusing solely on lawmakers’ decisions, attention should turn to how the central bank will respond. If the US Federal Reserve maintains higher interest rates, debt servicing costs rise. On the other hand, a shift toward looser monetary policy could undermine the US dollar’s strength.
Generally speaking, higher US Treasury yields reflect reduced investor confidence, as buyers demand greater compensation for perceived risks. Historically, this indicator has shown a positive correlation with Bitcoin’s price, meaning both tend to rise together, given the cryptocurrency’s appeal as an alternative asset.
Therefore, Bitcoin holding above $105,000 while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.25% from
4.50% on June 6 suggests early signs of a decoupling. Even so, it remains too early to declare Bitcoin a proven reserve asset, particularly as both gold and the S&P 500 approach their own all-time highs.
In effect, broader markets appear to be pricing in a weaker US dollar, as evidenced by capital flowing into assets that traditionally benefit from currency debasement, such as equities, commodities, and Bitcoin itself. The dollar’s devaluation comes as investors react to tariffs, the US deficit spending crisis, and pressure on the Fed to cut rates. Ultimately, while the debt ceiling increase may coincide with a Bitcoin rally above $110,000, historical patterns do not support a direct causal link between these events.
Onchain Data Points to Bitcoin Being in an Accumulation Phase
Bitcoin is flashing early signs of a strong rally, but the price chart is not drawing attention. Onchain data shows a “demand generation” pattern similar to the accumulation phases seen after the Terra/LUNA and FTX collapse, and both marked major cycle bottoms.
The 30-day moving average of stablecoin inflows has dipped into negative territory, forming the same “blue zones” previously seen in 2022. This suggests participants are not ready to sell, signalling a return of meaningful demand amid suppressed volatility.
While the Bitcoin price remains above $100,000, the New UTXO 30-day SMA*, a proxy for new network activity, remains near 570,000. That’s roughly 40% lower activity than when BTC was trading between $60,000–$70,000 and far from the 850,000–1 million range that supported the 2024 bull run.
This divergence suggests that long-term holders are locking up coins, not moving them, creating a supply squeeze scenario where price could rapidly rise if new demand kicks in. A move past 700,000 on the New UTXO metric would signal that fresh participants are entering. If it climbs beyond 850,000, it could confirm the start of a full-blown retail and institutional- driven bull phase.
The Exchange Flow Multiple supports this setup, tracking short-term to long-term BTC inflows, which has dropped to a zone that historically marks a seller exhaustion phase where diminished sell-side liquidity sparks upside price momentum.
Meanwhile, whales appear to be mobilising. Large transactions now comprise 96% of all exchange flows, a level historically associated with major price expansions. These entities may position coins for strategic redistribution, often timed with price spikes.
However, despite these bullish structural signals, short-term risks remain. The Apparent Demand metric for 30 days has returned negative for the first time in two months, indicating that new buyer demand isn’t strong enough to absorb selling pressure from miners and some long-term holders (LTHs). This imbalance raises the risk of a near-term price correction.
* The New UTXO 30-day SMA measures the trend in transaction activity on the Bitcoin network by smoothing out daily fluctuations in the number of new UTXOs created. The New UTXO 30-day SMA acts as a sentiment and adoption indicator, is often used to confirm bull or bear trends, and helps distinguish between long-term growth and short-term hype.
In this mixed environment characterised by HODLing, seller exhaustion, and early whale activity, Bitcoin’s next move hinges on whether fresh demand can outpace residual selling. A short-term correction could precede the broader uptrend if momentum stalls near key resistance levels at $110,000.
Bitcoin ETFs Maintain Inflow Despite Geopolitical Tensions
Recent data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 1.24 million BTC, approximately 6% of the total circulating supply. Even during the recent geopolitical turmoil between Iran, Israel, and the U.S., Bitcoin ETFs didn’t flinch.
Bitcoin ETFs didn’t break during global stress: that’s a change in investor behaviour. Also, ETF investors are no longer just speculating; they are allocating long-term. That means institutional investors now view Bitcoin as a core portfolio asset.
A new study confirmed a significant portion of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows is not driven by arbitrage or hedged futures strategies, but by long-term, unhedged demand from traditional markets, and it is just one layer of a more profound transformation underway.
A collaborative report by Glassnode and Avenir Group mentioned that while the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs marked a milestone for the crypto market, questions remained whether the influx of capital was authentic or merely the result of basis trades exploiting price differences between CME futures and spot markets.
The data indicated that much of the capital entering ETFs reflects genuine, directional exposure, suggesting that institutional investors aren’t merely probing the market, but are committing with conviction. The report opined that the steady rise in spot ETF holdings signals a structural change in Bitcoin’s market profile. Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as an institutional asset. This shift brings more stable capital, improved liquidity, and signs of a maturing market.
Beyond spot ETF flows, the study noted that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset, with its performance now closely tied to broader financial conditions. Data shows growing positive correlations with traditional risk-on assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and gold, while inversely tracking the US Dollar Index and credit stress indicators like high-yield spreads.
Its responsiveness to the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) further highlights this shift as Bitcoin rallies during expanding liquidity and falters when financial conditions tighten.
ETF Flows Continue to Drive Bitcoin’s Price, While Treasury Companies Have Muted
Impact
Bitcoin’s sluggish price action in June has revived debate over what truly drives the market. A strong correlation exists between Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows and price returns, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin treasury companies, whose acquisitions often result in a net neutral market impact, according to digital asset brokerage and research firm K33.
Recent data shows Bitcoin’s price remains closely tied to ETF flows, with a strong R² of 0.80, explaining around 80% of the variance in 30-day BTC returns. Over the past month, the combined Bitcoin ETFs have added 13,000 BTC, marking the weakest 30-day inflow since April 23, and closely mirroring price action.
In contrast, the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies has had a more mixed impact on price, with recent data showing a weaker correlation between corporate Bitcoin acquisitions and returns. While firms like Strategy continue to buy Bitcoin directly over-the-counter (OTC) using capital raised through debt or equity, many newer entrants are taking a different approach.
Over 50 new treasury initiatives have launched in the past three months alone, with many of them acquiring Bitcoin through in-kind share swaps with large holders. One example is the Softbank-backed Twenty One, which built its 37,230 BTC position by exchanging shares for Bitcoin from Tether and Bitfinex. These in-kind swapping structures generate little to no net market demand for Bitcoin, helping explain why treasury flows now have a more muted impact on price than ETF flows, potentially drawing capital away from direct Bitcoin purchases.
With the massive momentum in Bitcoin treasury companies of late, more investors are attracted to this trade and may seek to sell BTC spot to participate in ATM offerings or fund enterprises directly in-kind. These structures weaken the supply impact of treasury company purchases and may explain the soft R²* of 0.18 between 30-day treasury flows and BTC returns.
*An R² of 0.18 indicates that only 18% of the variation in BTC returns can be explained by 30-day treasury flows.
Summary and Conclusions
Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a macro asset, with its performance becoming aligned with broader financial market conditions. Meanwhile, the consistent increase in spot ETF holdings indicates a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Bitcoin is becoming viewed as an institutional asset, attracting more stable capital, enhancing liquidity, and showing signs of market maturation. We remain firmly bullish on the long-term outlook for Bitcoin and aim to continue growing our Bitcoin holdings via our Bitcoin Extraction Strategy (BESt), which we expect will continue to grow and compound our holdings over the next 5 years.
Feel free to contact me should you have any enquiries.
Contact: Greg Galton, CIO