November 2025 Monthly Market Commentary

November 2025 marked a challenging period for digital assets, as risk aversion intensified amid a hawkish Federal Reserve pivot, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, and persistent tariff-related uncertainty. Contrary to Bitcoin’s historical median November return of +8.2%, the month recorded its sharpest decline since 2022, with Bitcoin closing down 17.6% and the broader CCi30 crypto index falling 19.4%. Total market capitalization contracted by approximately $1 trillion. While altcoins experienced more severe drawdowns, selective pockets of institutional rotation, particularly around newly approved ETFs, provided limited offsets.

Bitcoin began the month at $109,600, briefly testing $115,000 on residual ETF momentum and anticipation of further monetary easing. However, a mid-month risk-off move, triggered by Fed chair Powell comments and FOMC minutes which sharply reduced odds of a December cut, drove a rapid 35% correction that saw Bitcoin trade almost as low as $80,000 for the first time since May. Cumulative liquidations exceeded $25 billion, the highest monthly figure on record. Late-month stabilization occurred near $90,360 as opportunistic accumulation and partial U.S.–China trade de-escalation stemmed the decline.

Two key metrics defined the month’s structural dynamics:

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows reversed sharply, recording net outflows of $3.48 billion, the largest monthly redemption of 2025, led by BlackRock’s IBIT ($1.2 billion outflow). A modest $240 million inflow in the final week signalled potential exhaustion of selling pressure.

Long-term holders (LTHs) absorbed material supply from short-term holders, increasing LTH dominance to 75% of circulating supply and adding approximately 120,000 BTC to veteran cohorts. Monthly LTH net position change improved to –45,000 BTC from October’s –104,000 BTC, reflecting a transition from profit-taking to strategic re-accumulation.

Altcoin performance was broadly negative. Solana declined 42%, Ethereum -28%, and Avalanche -45%, while newly launched spot Solana and XRP ETFs briefly attracted rotation capital before succumbing to the broader risk-off environment. On-chain activity remained resilient in segments: Base network transaction count reached an all-time high of 406.9 million, and DeFi fee generation, while off October peaks, remained elevated relative to total value locked (TVL).

Global & U.S. Macro Backdrop

Policy and Rates

Federal Reserve chair Chair Powell’s post-October rate cut commentary and subsequent FOMC minutes reinforced a data-dependent, cautious stance, highlighting persistent tariff-related inflation risks and the ongoing government shutdown’s disruption of key releases. Market-implied probability of a 25 bps December cut fell from 90% to 40%. The government shutdown, the longest on record, suppressed key data releases, forcing reliance on private indicators that highlighted bifurcated consumer spending and rising stress among lower-income cohorts.

Globally, China’s partial trade concessions provided temporary relief, but structural property and export challenges persisted.

European regulatory harmonization under MiCA remained stalled.

SEC Developments

The Commission introduced a 20-day accelerated review pathway for commodity-based ETPs, resulting in approvals for Bitwise’s Solana staking ETF and Canary’s XRP spot ETF, as well as Grayscale’s multi-asset Digital Large Cap fund. Combined day-one volumes exceeded $110 million. However, the shutdown delayed decisions on 16 additional filings, pushing timelines into 2026 and contributing to near-term uncertainty.

Bitcoin: On-Chain Resilience Amid Price Pressure

The mid-month breach of the short-term holder realised price ($85,200) represented the first such violation since July, yet aggressive accumulation prevented a deeper correction below $80,000. Reclaiming the STH cost basis would re-establish bullish bias toward $110,000+; sustained weakness below could expose $70,000–$75,000.

Onchain Metrics:

• Realized Profit/Loss Ratio collapsed to 0.38 (lowest since the March 2025 low), indicating the majority of spent coins were sold at a loss – a classic capitulation signature historically followed by multi-month recoveries.
• Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) spiked to its highest level since the 2022 bear market trough, confirming that long-dormant holders moved material volume during the crash – typically a cleansing event that transfers supply to higher-conviction hands.
• Reserve Risk dropped to 0.0018 (deep green zone), a level that has only been seen at major cycle buying opportunities (2019, 2020, early 2025). The metric balances price against HODLer conviction and currently signals strong risk/reward.
• RHODL Ratio fell below its realized-price band for the first time this cycle, marking a transition from late-stage enthusiasm into an accumulation phase per historical precedents.
• MVRV Z-Score touched –0.7, entering the same undervaluation zone that preceded the 2023–2024 rally (+380%) and the post-2022 recovery leg (+170%).

Corporate Treasury Activity

Public company Bitcoin holdings increased to approximately 5.5% of total supply. Notable additions included MicroStrategy’s 20,000 BTC purchase and ongoing equity raise preparations. Sovereign and institutional investors added further dry powder estimated at $8–12 billion.

Altcoins: Selective Rotation in a Risk-Off Environment

ETF approvals drove brief outperformance in Solana and XRP ecosystems, yet broader liquidity withdrawal dominated. DeFi total value locked (TVL) declined 12%, though fee generation demonstrated resilience, with Aave and leading L2 protocols maintaining elevated revenue relative to prior cycles. Capital rotated toward yield-bearing and regulatory-clarity assets, underscoring a maturing preference for fundamentals over speculation.

Summary and Outlook

November served as a forceful reminder of digital assets’ sensitivity to macro liquidity conditions and leverage. The $25 billion liquidation event cleared significant excess while on-chain metrics; record LTH supply share, declining exchange reserves, and stabilizing holder behaviour, point to underlying structural strengthening.

December historically posts a median Bitcoin return of +5.1%, supported by fiscal year-end rebalancing. Market pricing of an 87% probability of a December rate cut and continued corporate/ETF inflow capacity provide constructive seasonal tailwinds. Risks remain tied to inflation persistence and geopolitical developments, but the technical and fundamental backdrop supports cautious optimism for a year-end recovery.

What the commentary shows.

November’s 17.6% Bitcoin decline, and $1 trillion market-cap wipeout exposed lingering leverage and macro sensitivity, yet the purge was remarkably healthy. Record liquidations cleared excess, long-term holder supply reached 75%, exchange balances hit multi-year lows, and multiple onchain valuation metrics entered territory seen only at major cycle bottoms. Institutional absorption via ETFs and corporate treasuries remained intact. The market is now structurally stronger, priced for pessimism, and historically well-positioned for year-end recovery as liquidity conditions ease.

Passive holders naturally feel pain in dips because they’re waiting for the price to come back. Radiance investors have a different game:

• Radiance responds to volatility differently from passive BTC holdings
• Income is paid in BTC, and when markets recover, the BTC accumulated may appreciate alongside the broader price trend.
• Dips can widen the forward compounding base
• There is no cap on upside.

Bitcoin corrections are stressful for passive holders because they create drawdowns without generating any additional BTC. The BESt strategy is designed to buy the dips mathematically, not emotionally. Dips can widen the forward compounding base, and historically dislocations have been followed by periods of improved premium conditions. Of course, market conditions vary and past outcomes may not repeat.

With Radiance, the real question isn’t “What is my Bitcoin worth today,”

It’s “How much more Bitcoin do I own today than I did yesterday?”

Feel free to contact me should you have any enquiries.

Contact: E: [email protected]     W: www.portal.am