MARKET UPDATE: March Commentary

Welcome to this month’s edition of Portal Asset Management’s Market Commentary. In this two-part series, we present a dual analysis covering the broader economic spectrum and a focused evaluation of the digital token arena.

Initiating the discourse, Mark Witten, our CIO, offers a Macro Economic overview, articulating the forces and trends influencing the financial world. Transitioning from the global view, Greg Galton, Portal’s Analyst Adviser, provides an in-depth analysis of the token market, underscoring the performance of critical digital assets.

INSIGHTS AT THE FOREFRONT:

MARKET INTELLIGENCE FROM OUR CIO, MARK WITTEN

• • Crypto Asset Market Volatility: March saw a 28% rally, a 17% drop, and a final 19% recovery, ending with a 27% increase for the month.
  • Market Performance: BTC and ETH underperformed the market with 13.3% and 5.2% gains, respectively, while overall market volatility, as measured by BTC’s 6M realised volatility, stood at 49%.
  • ETF Trading and Flows: Over $100bn traded in ETFs through March; $15bn outflow from Grayscale offset by $27bn inflow to other providers, with combined holdings of over 500,000 BTC
  • Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook: BTC reached a new high of $73,700 on March 14th; upcoming Halving and ETF demand expected to support price.
  • Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade: Successful deployment on March 13th led to transaction cost reduction on some L2 networks by up to 95%.
  • Crypto ETNs on London Stock Exchange: Post FCA approval, LSE Group to list Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs for professional investors, with trading expected to commence on May 28th.
  • Ethereum ETF Approval Odds: Bloomberg’s odds for May approval drop from 70% to 30%, but expectation remains for end of Q3 2024.
  • Bull Market Outlook: Firm belief in the onset of a multi-year bull run, driven by institutional investment and adoption.
  • Investment Case for Crypto: 2024 poised to be pivotal with declining supply, rising demand, political and regulatory support, and global crises increasing BTC’s appeal as a “flight to safety”.

Download full commentary here.

AI AND CRYPTO UNITE:
THE GAME-CHANGING SYNERGY OF THE YEAR

Greg Galton, Analyst Adviser

• AI Sector Investment: The Radiance Fund has a bullish stance on AI, investing in cryptocurrencies poised to address AI industry issues like privacy and computing power; AI-focused crypto projects saw a significant rise, outperforming Bitcoin and CCI30 Index.
• Superintelligence Alliance Merger: SingularityNET $AGIX and Fetch.ai $FET to merge with Ocean Protocol $OCEAN into a $7.5 billion Superintelligence Alliance ($ASI) to develop a decentralized AI platform.
• Bitcoin in Japan: The world’s largest state pension fund, GPIF of Japan, explores bitcoin for diversification, reflecting societal and economic shifts.
• Ethereum Staking Innovations: Ethereum’s second-largest DeFi sector is restaking with $11.9 billion TVL; EigenLayer’s protocol may become a cornerstone for new services and rewards.
• Yield Farming Success: Pendle Finance records a high in daily fees at $250k, with TVL growing by over 60% to approach $4 billion, becoming the largest DeFi yield protocol.
• Solana’s Rising Fees: Solana earns $17.8 million in fees over seven days, surpassing Bitcoin’s $17.5 million and hitting new record highs.
• Avalanche and Alipay+ Partnership: Avalanche partners with Alipay+ to launch a Web3-supportive e-wallet and voucher program, targeting 100 million users across Asia
• Pantera Investment in Solana: Pantera aims to raise funds to purchase $250 million in SOL tokens at a discounted rate, with a long-term vesting period.
• Memecoin Growth: Dog Wif Hat $WIF exceeds $4, reaching a $4 billion market cap and becoming the third-largest memecoin, yielding significant profits for early investo
• Notable NFT Sale: CryptoPunks NFT #7804 sells for 4,850 ETH, over $16 million, becoming the second-highest-priced sale in the collection.

FINAL THOUGHTS

As we progress into the second quarter, we remain steadfast in our belief that we are at the dawn of the industry’s third significant bull run, propelled by institutional involvement and revolutionary technological integration. The optimistic horizon is not just illuminated by the institutional embrace of crypto but by the widespread adoption and innovation that signal a maturing market ready to embrace its next chapter of exponential growth.